The same forecast models suggesting development is possible are also forecasting strong wind shear over the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea next week.

It's too early to determine which of these scenarios may occur.īut there's one obstacle a Gulf or western Caribbean system seems likely to face. Namely, Agatha may dissipate over southern Mexico, but remnant spin from Agatha above the ground could migrate into the Bay of Campeche late next week.Īnother possibility is for development to occur on the east side of the gyre over the western Caribbean Sea later next week. This 'ghost' scenario is what some computer forecast models are suggesting could occur later next week. The black portion of the track indicates where the remnant from Amanda tracked before spawning what would become Cristobal. Track history of Tropical Storm Amanda, then Tropical Storm Cristobal in late May and early June 2020. Near the end of May 2020, Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, then moved inland and dissipated over the mountains of Guatemala.īut Amanda's remnant spin above the ground – its 'ghost,' if you will – continued moving north and northwest into the Bay of Campeche, the bowl-shaped bay at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Mexico. Could Eastern Pacific Remnant Spawn a Gulf Storm? While Stan's direct circulation resulted in about 80 deaths, severe flash flooding and mudslides from the gyre claimed an estimated 1,000 to 2,000 lives across Central America, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In 2005, Hurricane Stan dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico, but its remnant spin became part of a larger gyre that triggered heavy rainfall over Central America. )ĬAGs have been notorious flash flood producers, often with deadly results. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. Rainfall Potential Next 7 Days (This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone.

Pacific hurricane track